The Ashes 2013/14 - Statistical Analysis: Mitchell Johnson in Adelaide vs Brisbane

Last week it was a bouncy wicket at  Brisbane and this week a placid batting surface at Adelaide. Irrespective of the surface, Mitchell Johnson is causing major problems to the English batsmen. On day 3 of the 2nd Test match at Adelaide Oval, he ended up with figures of 7/40.

Fast and Furious – Mitchell Jonson adjusted his lengths at Adelaide and bowled further up than Brisbane to reap just rewards

After the nasty bowling spell at Brisbane in the last Test match, the cricketing world was curiously waiting to see Johnson in action – to witness the  tactics  that he would employ against the English batsmen on Australia’s best batting surface.

The question was – would he be mature enough to adjust to drastically different surfaces or would he bowl his natural length i.e 8m ahead of batsmen, pitching it short, aiming at batsmen’s ribs?

On display was something special. He bowled it much fuller, getting batsmen to drive and occasionally bowled short to create the doubt  in the batsman’s mind. He managed to get 7 wickets bowling this length, out of which 4 were bowled, 1 LBW, 1 caught in the slips and 1 by Haddin, the wicket keeper.

The flamboyant looking 32-year-old Johnson gives you a sense that he now understands his game really well. Ability of an individual to adjust to different conditions, to alter your game to suit the situation and yet perform is a sign of a world class professional, and Mitchell Johnson surely makes a strong case of being a world class bowler.

The style of cricket he plays would get kids to take note of Test cricket in this T20 era and remind other fans that this is why we loved the game in the first place – to watch players perform when TESTed.

The graphic below shows his comparison in length bowled at Brisbane and Adelaide. All his wickets were earned by bowling full length deliveries outside off stump, making batsmen drive.

Bowling length - 70% on full + good length at Adelaide compared to 57% at Brisbane.

Wickets  - 7/7 on full + good length, compared to 4/9 at Brisbane.

If he manages to keep himself fit and away from injuries, batsmen – watch out!

Comparison of Mitchell Johnson’s bowling in Adelaide vs Brisbane

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Adelaide Oval - Australia's best batting wicket

Historically Adelaide Oval has the reputation of being one of the best batting wicket around the world – certainly Australia’s best.  As many as 20 double centuries have been scored on this ground – best by none other than Sir Don himself. He scored 299* against South Africa in the year 1932 .

With the pitch relaid earlier this year, the curator Damian Hough  has put in all the effort to  get it as close as possible  to original Adelaide surface. He was quoted saying “We are trying to produce a typical Adelaide Oval pitch, something that will be good to bat on and something that will hopefully spin as the game goes on.”

Adelaide Oval – Infographic

Unlike at Brisbane or Perth, the pitch would not be conducive for short pitch bowling – It will be interesting to see  Mitchell Johnson’s strategies.  It would also assist spinners  -  Nathan Lyon has had success in the past  on this wicket against top quality players of spin.  In the last 2 years, Lyon  has  manged to get wickets of Sachin, Laxman, Sehwag, Amla and Kallis  at Adelaide Oval. These are big names  in international cricket – some achievement this. And moreover he is got the rhythm going for him –  Watch out for Nathan Lyon.

Looking at the stats from the recent matches and the patterns of dismissals  on this surface –  ’Good length’ has been the preferred length by the bowlers. The below pitch map graphic shows that  - Dismissals through short pitch and full length deliveries have been few and far between and majority wickets are taken by bowling on Good Length – 71% for for fast  and 53% for spinners. Spinners  can also afford to pitch it further up. Good length – is the length at Adelaide oval.

On the other hand, English batsman will breathe a sigh of relief knowing that this pitch would be a touch slower than Brisbane. Cook, Bell and Pitersen would be expected to score big and it would be a new  experience for Carberry and Root to play Lyon on a  turning surface.

Would it be Australia – would be England – or would it be a DRAW,  lets wait and watch. Adelaide – here we come!

Pitch map of last 2 years @ Adelaide Oval

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Stats: Is Ian Bell England's Rahul Dravid

With Jonathan Trott opting out of the series, the No 3 is position is up for grabs in the England batting lineup. It will be interesting to see who will be nominated for this challenge.  Jonny Bairstow might not have made his case for the promotion  yet.  Kevin Petersen has been playing at No 4 and he likes it there. The team management have made conscious decision to play Joe Root down order in this series, in spite of having a decent stint at the top of the order. So everything suggests that it would be  Ian Bell who would be promoted to No 3.

He might not have had tremendous success  at No 3 compared to No 5 and , however his ability  to counter  both – swing and bounce  added with his experience that he has earned in 94 test matches would make a strong case for the role of No 3. His career best score of 235 was scored at No 3 against India at Kennington Oval in the year 2011. More importantly,  he gives you this feel that he can do a Dravid  - do what the team requires him to do.

Below is the statistical insights into his performance.

suddenly england's batting order unsettled. who plays at 3? guess ian bell has to step up. has played there before. — Harsha Bhogle (@bhogleharsha) November 25, 2013

 

I would leave Root in the middle .. He will eventually open so England should pick a long term No3.. That man is Ian Bell IMO. — Michael Vaughan (@MichaelVaughan) November 27, 2013

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He is fast, he is furious - he goes by the name of Mitchell Johnson

Some said he is lethal, others said he is wayward. The first Ashes test at Gabba showed the world that he can be among the best.

 Most of us who grew up in the late 80' and 90's missed the opportunity of watching the hostile bowling of West indies and the Aussie pace bowlers of the 70's and only heard it from our father, uncle, grandfather or commentators. Even today, there are few better sights in world cricket than watching a genuine fast bowler steaming in at 150 km/h firing it towards ribs, chest and helmet. 
A glimpse of it was on display at the Gabba in the first test match of Ashes Down under. English batsmen were jumping, ducking, swaying away from the line and at times attempting to hook. Words used to best describe it - #Intimidatory #hostile #nasty. 
At one point in the game, there was a leg slip, short leg, square leg and deep fine leg - It reminded of the bodyline series. Watching the action from your drawing room was exciting. Not sure if the English batsmen would share the same opinion.

Mitchell Johnson bowling fiery spell at the Gabba during 1st Ashes test match

Aussie wicket keeper Brad Haddin was quoted saying, "He [Mitchell Johnson] was hitting 154 km/h, It's as good and as fast as I've seen him. We faced him [at training] leading up to the Test match when he was trying to get ready. It is definitely no fun in the nets." Since the time he made his debut, he has been rated highly by his peers and ex cricketers around the world. Dennis Lille even said that he is a "once in a lifetime bowler". 
Huge compliment coming in from the legend himself. However, unfortunately he has also been accused of being wayward at times. He has been guilty of giving away too many boundary balls. Accuracy and consistency are not his forte. He did not find a spot in the team during the recently concluded Investec Ashes in England. 

But the question is  - did he do something different in the Gabba Test match? Because he looked far more effective and consistent. He made contributions with the bat but more so with the red cherry in hand.  It's way too early in the series to analyze this performance and compare it to his past  performances but comparing stats between his recent 5 test matches played in similar conditions to that of 1st test at Gabba did throw up some interesting insights.

Mitchell Johnson - Gabba vs last 5 test matches

100 % - increase in maiden overs bowled 
9 maidens out of the 38 overs bowled compared to 19 out of 155 in the previous 5 Test matches. 

75 % - decrease in rate of boundaries conceded 
Conceded boundaries as rarely as every 3. 3 overs, compared to last 5 Test matches where a boundary was conceded every 2 overs. 

Bowling maiden overs is not what Johnson is known for. Maiden over helps you bowl more deliveries on the trot at the same batsman - better way to execute plans against a batsman - which potentially leads to dismissal. At the same time, when you are NOT bowling maidens - it is imperative to not leak runs easily too. Idea is to not release pressure if you cannot create it. For the attacking bowler he is, if he can bowl more dot balls at a batsman without giving away too many boundary balls - he could be one of Top 3 test bowlers in the next 12 to 18 months . Currently Dale Steyn and Philander are the 2 fast bowlers who feature in top 3 ICC test rankings. 

Short pitch length and outside leg stump line - Unlike James Anderson or Dale Steyn who rely on swing - Mitchell Johnson gets most of his wickets with short pitch or short of good length bowls. If you have seen him bowl in the past, you would not be surprised. Above graphic justifies this. While there was increase in % of short balls, what was noticeable was the line. He bowled consistently outside leg into the ribs and caused problem to English batsmen. Coaches would tell you - good short pitch bowl is the one which makes the batsman play. Preferably aimed at the ribs - so that the batsman cannot sway away from the line easily. Exactly what Johnson did and it earned him 5 out of his 9 wickets in this Test match. The wicket of Michael Carberry was one such one planned event- which appeared as Michael Clarke's master plan. When a left handed bowler bowls around the wicket to a left handed batsman and he gets it to bounce, it is generally uncomfortable for the batsman. Batsman start protecting his ribs - in the process gets short leg and leg slip into play. As a batsman, you do not get enough room to hook or pull. In such situations, batsmen in the past have made minor adjustments by opening up their stance. This gives the batsman little more room to deal with short pitch ball. Will the 2 Left handed English openers Cook and Carberry adopt this technique to counter the Aussie tactics is something to watch out for. Also, with Jonathon Trott's opting out of the series, England batting order suddenly  looks unsettled.With Adelaide considered as Australia's best batting wicket and it being the venue for the second Test match - English batsman will get a chance to train & execute their plans before the actions shifts to Perth in the 3rd test match. Ian Bell might get promoted to No 3 as he has been there in the past. It will be interesting to see how English batsman deal with this fiery Aussie pace attack - Mitchell Johnson in particular. 
"Win Gabba - win Ashes" they say. Whatever the result would be, this Ashes is going to be one exciting series. Watch out!  

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